@Article{BragaVoStDaMeEc:2020:PrTiAr,
author = "Braga, Carlos Roberto and Vourlidas, Angelos and Stenborg,
Guillermo and Dal Lago, Alisson and Mendon{\c{c}}a, Rafael
Rodrigues Souza de and Echer, Ezequiel",
affiliation = "{George Mason University} and {The Johns Hopkins University
Applied Physics Laboratory} and {U.S. Naval Research Laboratory}
and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Predicting the time of arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth
from heliospheric imaging observations",
journal = "Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics",
year = "2020",
volume = "125",
number = "9",
pages = "e2020JA027885",
month = "Sept.",
abstract = "The time of arrival (ToA) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at
Earth is a key parameter due to the space weather phenomena
associated with the CME arrival, such as intense geomagnetic
storms. Despite the incremental use of new instrumentation and the
development of novel methodologies, ToA estimated errors remain
above 10 h on average. Here, we investigate the prediction of the
ToA of CMEs using observations from heliospheric imagers, i.e.,
from heliocentric distances higher than those covered by the
existent coronagraphs. In order to perform this work, we analyze
14 CMEs observed by the heliospheric imagers HI\‐1 onboard
the twin STEREO spacecraft to determine their front location and
speed. The kinematic parameters are derived with a new technique
based on the Elliptical Conversion (ElCon) method, which uses
simultaneous observations from the two viewpoints from STEREO.
Outside the field of view of the instruments, we assume that the
dynamics of the CME evolution is controlled by aerodynamic drag,
i.e., a force resulting from the interaction with particles from
the background solar wind. To model the drag force, we use a
physical model that allows us to derive its parameters without the
need to rely on drag coefficients derived empirically. We found a
CME ToA mean error of 1.6 ± 8.0 h ToA and a mean absolute error of
6.9 ± 3.9 h for a set of 14 events. The results suggest that
observations from HI\‐1 lead to estimates with similar
errors to observations from coronagraphs.",
doi = "10.1029/2020JA027885",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020JA027885",
issn = "2169-9402",
language = "en",
targetfile = "braga_predicting.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}